Wednesday, January 7

Case study of OCBC preference shares

16comments

  1. Hi Kay
    May I check whether is there any difference in the default risk for the two OCBC preference shares. Can OCBC stop paying the dividend in any one year since it is not cumulative. Is it a good opportunity to buy now since it is trading below par now. I noticed UOB preference shares usually trade higher than OCBC preference shares despite the fact that it offers 5%, why?

    regards
    aaw

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  2. Hi aww,

    It depends on how you define default risk. In the broadest sense, OCBC preference shares will default if OCBC collapses as a bank.

    It is possible for OCBC to stop paying dividends on its preference shares but that would mean that they cannot pay dividends for the ordinary shares too and this is very unlikely since OCBC has been paying dividends on its ordinary shares for the past few decades.

    In my opinion, trading below par does not always means that it is a good opportunity to buy. As compared to bonds, if you buy bonds below par, you are assured of some capital gain when the bond is redeemed at par value at maturity. However, preference shares are perpetual and they do not mature. On the other hand, it's true that the price of preference shares have dropped to certain extent and the dividend yield is attractive indeed.

    I have not looked at both UOB and OCBC preference shares in detail so I'm not really sure of the reason on why UOB preference shares is trading higher than OCBC preference shares.

    Kay

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  3. Hi Kay,

    Thank you for setting up this wonderful blog. I have been reading your articles for a few months and I have learnt lots from it.

    I have a question regarding 2 of OCBC's prefernce share. What is the difference between OCBC BK 5.1 NCPS (a.k.a class B prefernce share) and OCBCCap 5.1 NCPS?

    Since both pays 5.1% dividend to their holders, why are stock prices for both so drastically different? The latter is currently trading at $95.98 and the former, $98.5. The difference adds up close to $3.5!

    BullorBear

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  5. Hi BullorBear,

    The OCBC Cap 5.1% NCPS pays a dividend of 5.1% per annum on or before 20 September 2018 and thereafter, pays a dividend based on the 3-Month Singapore Swap Offer Rate plus 2.5% while the OCBC BK 5.1% NCPS pays a fixed 5.1% perpetually. As such, the market may be pricing these two preference shares differently due to this reason so maybe that is why both preference shares are selling at different prices.

    Kay

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  6. Hi Kay,

    Thanks for the prompt repy and the information!

    Looking forward to more up-coming posts you have.

    BullnBear

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  7. Hi BullnBear,

    Thanks for your compliment. I'm glad to be of some help.

    Kay

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  8. Hi Kay,

    You mentioned that OCBC Cap 5.1% NCPS pays a dividend based on the 3-Month Singapore Swap Offer Rate plus 2.5% after 20 September 2018. So, if the "3-Month Singapore Swap Offer Rate" is 3%, then the dividend will be 5.5% isn't it? If so, unless ocbc decided not to pay dividend to the ordinary shares holders, for OCBC Cap 5.1% NCPS holders they will get at least 2.5%. Am I right?

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  9. by the way, what is "3-Month Singapore Swap Offer Rate"?

    Thank you.

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  10. Hi hwtan,

    Yes, the dividends will be 5.5% based on $100. However, the dividend yield that you will be getting may not be 5.5% since the yield will depend on your buying price of the preference shares. If OCBC decides not to pay dividends to its ordinary shareholders, preference shareholders may still get dividends since they are ranked higher. In other words, OCBC must pay its preference shareholders in full first before it can pay its ordinary shareholders. There is no fixed rule regarding this. SOR stands for swap offer rate and it is the average cost of funds used for commercial lending by banks here.

    Kay

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  11. What preference shares means that holders of the preference shares will have higher priority to (i) dividends and (ii) liquidation proceeds as compared to ordinary shareholders, but subordinate to bondholders.

    Under normal circumstances, OCBC cannot pay ordinary dividends unless they have paid preference shareholders 5.1% dividends on their principal. However, that does not stop OCBC from paying dividends altogether (to both ordinary and preference shareholders). In addition, if preference shareholders will not be beneficiary to any dividend increases to ordinary dividends, hence will unlikely benefit from price increases in OCBC ordinary stock.

    If OCBC was to go into liquidation, the creditors (bondholders, etc.) will get their money back first, followed by preference shareholders, and the common shareholders will get the remaining. Given that in most corporate belly-ups, debt holders typically get only 20 cents back on $1 of principal, shareholders (preference + ordinary) typically get nothing, so this is a moot point.

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  12. Hi Anonymous,

    Thanks for sharing all these information. I'm pretty curious on on the fact that you stated that debt holders typically get only 20 cents back on $1 of principal while the shareholders typically get nothing. Can you provide any links on this ?

    Kay

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  13. I have subscribed to both the OCBC 5.1% NCPS and OCBC Cap 5.1% NCPS when they were issued at par and I have some 4.5% and 4.2% NCPS as well. During the the financial crisis, all of them go below par with the 5.1% NCPS hovering @0.93 and the 4.5%/4.2% @.83 respectively. I sold partially my 5.1% NCPS to buy in more 4.x% NCPS because the pricing is just ridiculus since 0.5% interest rate with more than a gap of 10% in value [20 years to close the gap]. All my NCPS are now above par. This means that I made 10% on the conversion and the 4.2% NCPS gains another 20% in value [$0.82 to $1.00 par.] Since I get 4/5% dividends as well. I consider this is one of the best and safe investment.

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  14. Hi,

    I think you made a very smart move in taking advantage of the pricing inefficiency in the market. That must have been very rewarding.

    Kay

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  15. is occ ncps dividen tax exempt? thanks.

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  16. Hello Kay,

    Thanks for your detail explanation on preference share and I hope you can help answer my questions. I am looking at 3 preference shares with today's closing price:

    OCBCBank5.1%NCPS100 - 105.12
    OCBCBank4.5%NCPS100 - 103.23

    After normalizing the closing prices, the 5.1%NCPS share gives 4.85% PA and the 4.5%NCPS gives 4.35% PA.

    My question is why would an investor hold the 4.5%NCPS? I assume the risk is more or less the same.

    Thanks.

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