Saturday, October 31

UOB Xinhua China A50 ETF

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UOB has launched the UOB Xinhua China A50 ETF recently. This ETF will track FTSE Xinhua/China A50 index and this index is designed to track the top 50 China A-shares companies by their market capitalization. A-shares are stocks of China companies which are listed in the Shenzhen or Shanghai stock exchange and these shares are listed and denominated in Chinese Yuan. These A-shares can only be owned by Chinese Nationals or Qualifed Foreign Insituitional Investors (QFII) as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)

The prospectus of this ETF can be downloaded here. Personally, I have taken a look at the prospectus and I do think that UOB has done a good job in explaining how this ETF works although it is still quite complex. I have taken snapshots of the important information of this prospectus.




After reading through some parts of the prospectus, I feel that the model of this ETF is rather complex. For a start, one is not holding directly to the A-shares of the China companies in the index but is actually holding on to the participatory notes known as P-notes, which is a synthetic representation of the A-shares. These P-notes have some terms and conditions which I am not too comfortable with and these are listed further in the prospectus which you can read about. Besides, both tranches of P-notes are essentially issued by Rabobank and this brings up the issue of counterparty risk.

Sunday, October 25

HDB resale prices high

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HDB resale prices high
Up 3.6% in Q3, with 11,649 units sold; cash top-ups also soar
By Jessica Cheam
(Taken from the Straits Times on 24th October 2009)

Cash-over-valuation amounts for resale HDB flats have quadrupled, from a median of $3,000 in the previous quarter to $12,000 in the third quarter. --

PRICES of resale Housing Board homes have continued their relentless climb, rising another 3.6 per cent in the third quarter to hit a fresh record.

But despite the high prices, demand for resale flats remained hot. A total of 11,649 homes changed hands in the third quarter, reaching a level not seen in five years.

The latest figures, released by HDB on Friday, highlight another important trend. Almost 80 per cent of resale flats were sold above their bank valuations.

And this amount, known as the 'cash-over-valuation' (COV) - or the cash top-up payable by buyers - quadrupled from a median of $3,000 in the previous quarter to $12,000.

Together, the numbers show that resale HDB flats are not just becoming more expensive, but homeowners have to fork out more cash to buy them.

Analysts said on Friday that the feverish buying activity had been fuelled by recent positive economic sentiment, and also some panic buying.

jcheam@sph.com.sg

Friday, October 23

Is that investment safe ?

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To see whether an investment is likely to be credible or not, there are a few simple questions which we can ask ourselves.

Does the return corresponds with the risk being taken ?

As a general rule of thumb, the risk should correspond with the returns. If the risk is low, then the return should be low. But then again, how low is low exactly ? For risk-free investments such as government bonds or fixed deposits, the return should be a low single digit. We should be looking at around 2% plus or minus approximately. For investments which are of low risk, the return should be in the single digit range although this will be higher than that of the risk-free investments. Any investments that promise to return over 10% to 20% or even more and claim to be risk-free is likely to be fraudulent. If the investment that you are considering passes this test, then perhaps you may consider to find out more about it. However, do also remember that for the recent Minibonds saga, they were marketed as low-risk investment products and the returns were low indeed. But I'm sure all of us know that truth by now that these Minibonds were a high-risk and low return investment. So that brings me to my next point.

Do you understand in the product that you are investing in ?
This can be summed up in the next sentence. If you do not understand the investment that you are investing in, then do not invest in it. Pretty simple and straightforward.

To know whether you understand the product that you are investing in, you can ask the following questions.
  • Do you know how this investment works ?
  • What is the maximum loss if this investment fails ?
  • What will happen if this investment folds up ?
  • Is this investment sustainable in the long run ?
Now this is the tougher part as it probably involves some thinking and research. But this is also another important step which you should do too as a prudent investor. If you are able to answer these questions about the investment which you are about to take up, then it should probably be safe.
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Saturday, October 17

Asia markets regain losses

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The two articles below when combined together, can give us a pretty good insight at the current state of the market. When the market was at its maximum pessimism last year, it was the best time to buy as many stocks were trading below their value. Now the tide has turned and those who have already bought into the market earlier on will be waiting for the majority of the market to put their funds into the stock market to bring the indices even higher. This is seen by the new level of optimism in the survey for the 2nd article. Coupled with the recovery of the economy, this should be the beginning of a new market cycle.
Asia markets regain losses
By Alvin Foo, Markets Correspondent
(Taken from the Straits Times on the 16th October 2009)

REGIONAL markets extended their rally on Thursday and have now fought their way back to where they were before the financial crisis struck a year ago.

That is still a long way below the peaks of 2007, but the remarkable rally that began amid the depths of panic and desperation in March is dramatically underlining the region's economic potency.

'The investor pendulum has been swinging towards Asia,' said CIMB-GK regional economist Song Seng Wun. 'The region's recovery prospects look better than anywhere else, and the post-Lehman selldown was probably overdone.'

The Lehman Brothers crash in September last year was the tripwire that sent the global economy into a tailspin, but bourses in the Asia-Pacific region have found traction to stage a recovery.

Wall Street's effort on Wednesday to cross 10,000 points, a surge driven by buoyant US corporate earnings, gave regional markets the push they needed.

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at a new 13-month high of 2,712.15 points on Thursday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished at a 14-month peak of 21,999.08, after crossing 22,000 during the day.

Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.77 per cent to 10,238.65, crossing the 10,000 mark for the first time this year, while Australian stocks added 0.6 per cent, bringing the S&P/ASX 200 to a 13-month high of 4,859.90.

The Shanghai market is up 63.7 per cent this year, way above the Dow's 14.1 per cent gain for this year and Britain's FTSE 100 Index's rise of 18 per cent.

The Indian market has surged 78.2 per cent this year, and the Hang Seng is up 52.9 per cent. Back home, the STI has gained 54 per cent for the year, and the Nikkei has added 15.6 per cent.

Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.77 per cent to 10,238.65, crossing the 10,000 mark for the first time this year, while Australian stocks added 0.6 per cent, bringing the S&P/ASX 200 to a 13-month high of 4,859.90.

The Shanghai market is up 63.7 per cent this year, way above the Dow's 14.1 per cent gain for this year and Britain's FTSE 100 Index's rise of 18 per cent.

The Indian market has surged 78.2 per cent this year, and the Hang Seng is up 52.9 per cent. Back home, the STI has gained 54 per cent for the year, and the Nikkei has added 15.6 per cent.


S'pore investors most upbeat in Asia: Survey
By Fiona Chan
(Taken from the Straits Times on the 16th October 2009)

INVESTORS in Asia have grown more confident about the global economic recovery, and Singapore investors are enjoying the biggest boost in sentiment.

According to a survey by Dutch banking group ING, investors here have registered the biggest increase in confidence across Asia, with a 24 per cent jump in optimism between June and last month.

The buoyancy may stem from the sustained strong performance of the financial markets and Singapore property market, said ING in a press statement yesterday.

Investors in South Korea and the Philippines were the next most upbeat, with a 19 per cent and 16 per cent increase in sentiment respectively over the same period.

In general, Asian investors are experiencing strong optimism about their local economies improving and the global economy being on the road to recovery.

Export-oriented markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have particularly cheerful investors who anticipate that their economies and that of the United States will continue improving in the fourth quarter.

In Singapore, four out of five investors believe the economic situation will get better by the end of the year.

Almost all of them - 91 per cent - believe that the local stock market will remain constant or rise in the fourth quarter, and on average they expect stocks to rise by another 9.3 per cent in the period.

Many of them are currently invested in sectors poised to benefit when the global recovery picks up, such as financial services, telecommunications, technology and commodities.

Eight out of 10 Singapore investors also believe home prices will not fall for the rest of the year. The average expected rise: 2.6 per cent.

Mr Tim Condon, head of research and chief Asian economist for ING Wholesale Banking, said the Singapore economy has 'snapped back more quickly than expected, albeit from a low base' as the Government did a good job preparing for the recession.

He believes investor confidence has been boosted by the strong rebounds in the stock and property markets, optimism about the tourism industry with the upcoming integrated resorts, and expectations of exports picking up next year with the recovery of the global economy.

One concern that Singapore investors have, however, is inflation. Three-quarters of them expect prices to rise next year, and about two-thirds think interest rates will also go up next year.

The ING Investor Dashboard survey has been published every quarter for more than two years. It is conducted across 13 markets in the Asia-Pacific, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Friday, October 16

OCBC buying ING Asia private bank

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OCBC buying ING Asia private bank
By Clare Jim and Saeed Azhar

HONG KONG/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore's third-biggest bank OCBC announced its arrival as a serious wealth player after clinching a surprise deal to buy Dutch ING's private banking unit in Asia for $1.5 billion.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC.SI) beat HSBC (HSBA.L) to the deal, which will triple the assets the Singapore bank manages for the rich and position it for opportunities in the fastest-growing private banking region of the world.

"What this would do is put the private bank on a firmer footing," Trevor Kalcic, banking analyst at RBS in Singapore, said of OCBC. "They had a very small private banking operation."

ING's (ING.AS) sale of its Asian private bank with about $16 billion in assets is its third major disposal in less than a month and the second in the Asia-Pacific region, as it seeks to raise capital to pay back bailout money to the Dutch government.

OCBC said in a statement on Thursday the acquisition will take its private bank assets to $23 billion.

"We are committed to investing more in the business and look forward to capturing greater market share of the growing number of high net-worth individuals in Asia and other markets," said OCBC CEO David Conner.

The purchase price, excluding ING's surplus capital of $550 million, is about 5.8 percent of ING's private banking assets in Asia, and would free up 370 million euros of capital for ING, the banks said.

By comparison, Julius Baer agreed to pay about 2.3 percent of ING's Swiss banking assets in a deal on October 7 excluding the surplus capital.

The CEO of HSBC's private bank Chris Meares told Reuters earlier this month that private banking assets in growth markets such as Asia could command a price of 2-3 percent of assets.

OCBC said the deal would cut its tier-1 capital by 1.5 percentage points to 13.9 percent.

Citigroup analyst Robert Kong said that OCBC's tier-1 capital exceeded the 12.5 percent for its local peers, giving it ample ammunition to seek M&A opportunities.

ASSET PRICES QUESTIONED

OCBC's private bank, which lost a third of its bankers to foreign rivals in 2006, is run by French national Olivier Denis. OCBC also controls insurance firm Great Eastern (GELA.SI) and asset manager Lion Global Investors.

ING's private bank in Asia is run by Renato de Guzman, who has been instrumental in building the business in his home country Philippines and Indonesia. For a newsmaker on the banker click on

The sale of the Asian assets came after it struck a deal to sell its Swiss private banking unit to Julius Baer (BAER1.VX) for 344 million euros on Oct 7. For stories on Dutch financial sector turmoil, click on

ING is in the midst of raising 6 billion euros to 8 billion euros through asset sales under a restructuring program it announced in April. It plans to ultimately exit 10 of the 48 countries where it does business.

The restructuring follows 10 billion euros in state aid ING received in October 2008 and a 22 billion euro asset guarantee it received from the Dutch state in January 2009.

The asset-sale program is seen as one potential way to offset a capital hit, though analysts have been unhappy with the sales thus far. In particular, they have found fault with both the prices paid and the fact that ING is selling assets in a still-depressed market. (Additional reporting by Ben Berkowitz in Amsterdam; Editing by Neil Chatterjee and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved

Wednesday, October 14

Is it too late to buy in ?

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Given the recovery in the local stock market, is it still too late to buy in now ? For this question, I did a simple study by referring back to the historical data of the Straits Times Index.

At its current level which is around 2600, the STI is around 78.5% from the bottom made in March this year. I went to compare the 1 year to 4 years return made from buying the STI after it has plunged from a peak and recovered 78.5% from the previous 2 bottoms prior to this current recovery. Those two bottoms took place in March 2003 at the level of around 1213 and August 1998 at the level of around 805. The results can be seen below.


As only the data for 2 bottoms were used, this is only meant to be used as a rough gauge since I would have prefer to analyze more data. Besides, past performance does not indicate that the future will always turn out to be the same way.

It can be seen that it still may not be too late to buy in as all of the returns are positive except for the annual return after 4 years from buying in after the bottom made on August 1998. Given that the STI is still a distance away from the previous peak of 3900 made in October 2007, I still think that it is still not too late to buy in. However, the returns will definitely not be as great as compared to if one has bought much nearer to the bottom but it will be still be rather significant. Do be prepared to ride out any volatility though as the stock market recovers back to its previous peak.

Saturday, October 10

HDB ramping up supply of flats

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HDB ramping up supply of flats
7,000 units will be released over the next three months
By Jessica Cheam
(Taken from the Straits Times on the 2nd of October 2009)

THE Housing Board will unleash about 7,000 flats onto the market over the next three months in an aggressive step to tackle rising concerns over supply and affordability.

The 7,000 homes exceed the 6,450 units released for first nine months of this year.

They also include 2,132 units in 24 estates across the island that have just been finished, or are near completion. They were launched yesterday in what was the Housing Board's single largest sales exercise in recent times.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan announced the move yesterday, on a day when new figures showed that HDB resale flat prices rose 3.2 per cent in the third quarter over the second quarter to reach another record high.

The price surge follows an increase of 1.4 per cent in the second quarter over the first three months of the year.

Mr Mah told the media yesterday: 'I want to assure everybody that there are sufficient flats available across the board for every budget.'

The high demand for housing, reflected in the price rises in yesterday's flash estimates, is likely behind HDB's move to lift housing stock.

Industry analysts say the steps to boost supply should have an impact on resale flat prices.

'COV levels will likely dip due to the immediate addition of these flats,' said PropNex chief Mohamed Ismail.

COV refers to 'cash over valuation' - the cash a buyer pays over and above a flat's valuation.

But Ngee Ann Polytechnic real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak says a dip in COV levels is unlikely to be sustained if the buying momentum continues.

'It will slow down the pace of price increase only temporarily. In the past three years, an average of about 3,200 resale flats were transacted each quarter, which is about 50per cent more than the 2,132 flats offered for sale,' he said.

HDB's move to increase supply comes amid growing discontent among buyers priced out of the market by high demand and limited supply.

HDB resale prices have risen by a hefty 31.2 per cent in the past two years.

An online petition to Mr Mah started circulating last month to collect 1,000 signatures calling for lower flat valuations and more affordable homes.

As of last night, it had received 1,079 names.

The minister added yesterday: 'The Government has made a commitment to provide our people with quality, affordable housing.

'This is a commitment that we will keep... and if there is a necessity, we will step up the building programme even further.'

The new flats earmarked for the rest of the year are being released under two main schemes.

Flat supply under the build-to-order (BTO) scheme for the year will be ramped up to 9,000 from about 8,000 announced previously.

About 5,000 units under the BTO programme will be launched for sale in Punggol, Sengkang, Jurong West, Sembawang, Bukit Panjang and Dawson.

The highly-anticipated 1,700 flats by award-winning architects at Dawson estate in Queenstown, which were to have been launched last month, will now be released in December, said HDB.

The Housing Board also unveiled a new scheme called Sales of Balance Flats (SBF), which will replace the existing balloting, quarterly sales and half-yearly sales exercises.

It offers flats from earlier BTO exercises, the Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme and repurchased flats and will be launched as and when sufficient flats accumulate, said HDB.

The aim is to simplify the flat application process and provide buyers with a wider choice of flats across a range of locations in one exercise.

The 2,132 flats launched yesterday fall under this new scheme. They range from studio apartments to executive flats, priced from $97,000 to $643,000.

Analysts are expecting a rush, especially as the prices of three-, four-, and five-roomers are about half of their respective resale prices, noted Mr Mak.

Home buyer Lynn Koh, 28, is one person preparing to apply.

'COV has risen in Whampoa, where my parents live, so I hope to be successful,' she said.

As of 5pm yesterday, HDB had received 2,038 applications for the 2,132 flats. Applications close on Oct 14.

jcheam@sph.com.sg

Wednesday, October 7

The danger of buying stocks with a low free float

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The stock market has been buzzing with news recently over the privatization attempt of CK Tangs by the Tang Family and this counter happens to have a low free float or public float. Basically, the free float of a counter is the number of shares that are held by the public and not by any institutional investors or any majority shareholders. So what is the danger in buying stocks with a low free float ?

1. Low Liquidity

Stocks with a low free float tend to have a low liquidity. As such, you may have a problem selling your shares on the the stock exchange. Furthermore, you may be not able to get a good price since the spread, which is the difference between the buying and selling price, for counters with a low free float is likely to be significant.

2. Privatization Attempt

Any counters with a low free float that has a majority shareholder in it, runs the risk of being taken private by the shareholder. Typically, this will happens when the stock market is depressed, making any privatization attempt to be much less expensive since the share price is likely to be low when the stock market is depressed. As such, the shareholder is not likely to offer a high price to buy over the shares that are held by the public. If you are an investor who had bought such a stock at a higher price and is waiting for the stock to recover after the stock price is being depressed by the stock market, you may be forced to take a realized loss during such a privatization attempt since the offer price in the privatization attempt may be lower than your buying price.
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Thursday, October 1

New insurance law addresses pitfalls of trusts

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New insurance law addresses pitfalls of trusts
By Lorna Tan, Senior Correspondent
(Taken from the Sunday Times on the 27th of September, 2009)

Life has just become a lot easier for holders of life policies, thanks to a new law that has simplified the rules governing the process of nominating beneficiaries.

The Insurance Nomination Law, as the regulation is known, came into effect on Sept 1 and is a vast improvement over the previous regime, which created irrevocable (trust) nominations - an area that has caused much heartache over the years.

The pitfalls of such trusts were obvious.

An irrevocable trust was created when you nominated your spouse or children as beneficiaries of your policy.

This meant you had set your policy in stone in that you could not change the beneficiaries or cash out the proceeds without the consent of all the nominees.

Many policyholders were unaware of the undesirable consequences of establishing an irrevocable trust and realised their predicament only when they were caught up in a divorce. To their horror, they found that their former spouses still had claims on their plans.

Confusing matters further, insurers allowed policyholders to nominate people other than a spouse or children as beneficiaries, such as parents and siblings, but these were not legally binding. Many policyholders made such nominations without realising that their nominees had no legal claim.

Indeed, the controversies surrounding such nominations prompted the insurance industry to do away with nominating beneficiaries in life policies in 2002. Most policyholders who still wanted to name beneficiaries were encouraged to draw up a will.

There was an exception for policies bought from insurance cooperative NTUC Income. It came under a separate Act that allowed a cooperative member to nominate such people as spouses, children, relatives and friends as beneficiaries.

The new regime allows for both revocable and irrevocable (trust) nominations. Unlike previously, revocable nominations of spouses and/or children as well as other entities are allowed. It means you can change your nomination at any time without your nominees' consent.

Policies with trust nominations incepted before Sept 1 are not covered by the new law, which is not retrospective, but if you have an existing policy with no trust nomination in place, you can now nominate beneficiaries.

Here are eight things you need to know.

1. Why making a nomination makes sense

Making a nomination is not compulsory, but the new regime provides a simple avenue to ensure that your policy proceeds are paid out to the right person at the right time and in the right amount. Compared to the alternative of writing a will - which costs around $300 or more - the new rule is a clear and affordable legal means to distribute policy benefits to your nominees.

2. Revocable nominations

Under the new law, those who take up life, accident and health policies with death benefits can create either a revocable or a trust - also called an irrevocable - nomination.

A revocable nomination means you retain full ownership over the policy, including the ability to change, add or remove nominees at any time without their consent.

Only death benefits are payable to the nominees. All living benefits such as the one that should be paid if you contract a critical illness go to you.

If you have only one nominee and he dies before you, a revocable nomination is automatically revoked. If there is more than one nominee and if one dies before you, his portion will be added to each surviving nominee's share of the benefits.

3. Trust nomination

This form of nomination - also called an irrevocable nomination - is inflexible and you should consider it only if you are prepared to give away the insurance proceeds completely to your nominees.

A policyholder relinquishes all rights to the policy, meaning all benefits, including living and death, belong to your nominees but you must still pay the premiums.

It also means that you need to get the written consent of all nominees before you can revoke the nomination, make any change, surrender or take a loan under the policy.

When a nominee dies before you, his share of the policy proceeds goes to his estate.

One advantage of a trust nomination is that the policy proceeds are protected from creditors.

4. How to nominate

You must be aged above 18 to make revocable and irrevocable (trust) nominations. The policyholder must specify the percentage share of the policy proceeds that each nominee will get. Two witnesses aged above 21 must also be present.

5. Policies excluded for nominations

Trust nominations are not allowed for policies bought under the Central Provident Fund Investment Scheme and Dependants Protection Scheme, as rules dictate that you must retain control over your retirement funds as long as you are alive.

Trust nominations also cannot be made under the Supplementary Retirement Scheme as the use of savings in this programme is restricted to products that have the potential of growing your own pool of retirement cash.

Policies with a trust nomination facility do not fulfil this criterion as you will no longer have control over the policy proceeds during your lifetime.

Both trust and revocable nominations are not allowed for annuities bought under the Minimum Sum Scheme as any residual money from the policies upon your death or policy termination must be refunded to your CPF Retirement Account for distribution.

6. Options for existing policyholders

The fact that the new law does not apply retrospectively is creating some rather complicated situations for people who already had policies in place before Sept 1.

Given this complex backdrop, the Life Insurance Association encourages policyholders to check with their insurers before making fresh nominations.

Here are some of the possible scenarios you might confront:

  • If you own policies bought before Sept 1 and have never made any nominations, you can now make a revocable or trust nomination under the new law.
  • If you named your spouse or children as beneficiaries, you have created a statutory trust under Section 73 of the Conveyancing and Law of Property Act and your nominees will continue to be recognised. The new law does not apply retrospectively, so it has no impact.
  • If you had named people other than your spouse or children as nominees, the new law will let you make fresh nominations in your plan.
  • If you had named your spouse or children and other people or relatives, your ability to make nominations under the new law will depend on the status of these nominations and the terms of your existing policy. You may have to seek legal advice.

7. If you do not make a nomination

In the absence of a valid nomination, the insurer may pay up to the first $150,000 of proceeds from a policy to a proper claimant. The balance will form part of the deceased's estate and will be distributed according to the intestate law or a will.

8. What to do before making a nomination

First, decide whom you want to name as your nominee(s). Also use the right form and specify the proportion of benefits you want each nominee to receive, ensuring that they add up to 100 per cent of the policy proceeds.

Ensure all details of each nominee are accurate and that the witnesses meet the requirements set out in the form.

And lastly, notify your insurer that you have made a nomination and send in a copy of your form.
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