This post is part of a series of posts that discuss about the STI ETF in detail. To access the other posts in this series, click here
Why invest in STI ETF ? Since the STI ETF tracks the Straits Times Index, we can take a look at the historical performance of the STI. STI is a benchmark that tracks the performance of stocks in Singapore generally. The picture below which is taken from fundsupermart, shows the historical performance of STI from 1985 up to 2008. The numbers in the picture indicate the onset of bear markets.
From a region of around 700 points in 1985, it managed to touch a high of around 3800 in 2007. The important point to take note is that STI always rise in the long run as seen from the picture above. Between this period of 1985 and 2007, Singapore has faced periods of economic turmoil such as the recession in 1985 and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Yet STI is still able to rise throughout these years. Since the STI ETF tracks the STI, it is likely that the STI ETF is able generate positive returns in the long run.
A study was done by La papillion, an investor who blogs at bullythebear.blogspot.com. His analysis can be found here. The key findings from his analysis is that on average, STI will give a returns of around 7% in the long run and that excludes dividends. If one includes dividends, the returns is likely to be slightly higher. This return of around 7% is more than the Singapore Government Bonds, which only offer around 4% for long term bonds and definitely more than the interest rate being offered in the CPF accounts.
STI ETF also gives out dividends. Currently it distribute dividends twice in January and July every year. The dividends for the previous years can be found on the SGX website here.
As a conclusion, STI ETF will be appropriate as a form of investment for anyone has the intention to hold this investment for a long time. The returns offered by the STI ETF is likely to outperform other similar form of investments in the long run.
I will be doing a comparison between ETF and unit trust as a form of investment in my subsequent posts.
Sunday, November 30
Saturday, November 29
Wednesday, November 26
What is STI ETF ?
Posted by
Kay
at
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
6 comments
This post is part of a series of posts that discuss about the STI ETF in detail. To access the other posts in this series, click here
A lot of people have often asked me during discussions on investment on what exactly is STI ETF when I tried to introduce them to it. Quite a few of them also seems to think that STI ETF is SGX which is the counter that represents the Singapore Exchange so I thought it will be good for me to write on this issue.
STI ETF stands for Straits Times Index Exchange Traded Fund and it is managed by State Street Global Advisors (SSgA). It has been listed on SGX since 17 April 2002. I am sure the Straits Times Index is familiar to most of us since it is an indication on the performance of the stocks in Singapore generally. But what is an Exchange Traded Fund ? ETF in short for Exchange Traded Fund, is a fund that tracks the index but can be traded like a stock. Thus STI ETF is a fund that tracks the Straits Times Index but can be traded like a stock on the Singapore Exchange.
Let me give an example of how STI ETF follows the STI. For example, at this point of time, STI is at 1711.13. This can be found on the main page of SGX where I have highlighted it with a red rectangular box.
Thus the STI ETF should be trading at a level of 1711.13 divided by 1000 which will give a price of around $1.71. At this point of time, the price of STI ETF is at $1.76 which can be seen in the picture below. I have also highlighted STI ETF and it's price with a red rectangular box.
Now some of you may ask how come the price of STI ETF is at $1.76 instead of $1.71 since STI is at 1711.13. This is because STI ETF does not really track STI exactly although it will try to track STI as closely as possible. It usually trades at a price slightly higher than the STI by a range of around 5 to 10 cents more but it is not really a cause of worry.
I will be touching the advantages of buying STI ETF as compared to stocks and unit trusts and perhaps some points one should take note when one buys the STI ETF in subsequent posts.
If you wish to find out about the STI ETF, the URL is here. The prospectus and the NAV per share can also be found at the link.
A lot of people have often asked me during discussions on investment on what exactly is STI ETF when I tried to introduce them to it. Quite a few of them also seems to think that STI ETF is SGX which is the counter that represents the Singapore Exchange so I thought it will be good for me to write on this issue.
STI ETF stands for Straits Times Index Exchange Traded Fund and it is managed by State Street Global Advisors (SSgA). It has been listed on SGX since 17 April 2002. I am sure the Straits Times Index is familiar to most of us since it is an indication on the performance of the stocks in Singapore generally. But what is an Exchange Traded Fund ? ETF in short for Exchange Traded Fund, is a fund that tracks the index but can be traded like a stock. Thus STI ETF is a fund that tracks the Straits Times Index but can be traded like a stock on the Singapore Exchange.
Let me give an example of how STI ETF follows the STI. For example, at this point of time, STI is at 1711.13. This can be found on the main page of SGX where I have highlighted it with a red rectangular box.
Thus the STI ETF should be trading at a level of 1711.13 divided by 1000 which will give a price of around $1.71. At this point of time, the price of STI ETF is at $1.76 which can be seen in the picture below. I have also highlighted STI ETF and it's price with a red rectangular box.
Now some of you may ask how come the price of STI ETF is at $1.76 instead of $1.71 since STI is at 1711.13. This is because STI ETF does not really track STI exactly although it will try to track STI as closely as possible. It usually trades at a price slightly higher than the STI by a range of around 5 to 10 cents more but it is not really a cause of worry.
I will be touching the advantages of buying STI ETF as compared to stocks and unit trusts and perhaps some points one should take note when one buys the STI ETF in subsequent posts.
If you wish to find out about the STI ETF, the URL is here. The prospectus and the NAV per share can also be found at the link.
Labels:
Informational,
STI ETF
Lower pay package for DBS staff
Posted by
Kay
at
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
No comments
This is strange indeed. They should be cutting cost by reducing the pay package for their staff first before retrenching their staff. Instead, they chose to do the latter first. A knee-jerk reaction to the government's criticism towards their retrenchment ?
Nov 26, 2008
Lower pay package for DBS staff
By Francis Chan
Variable bonuses - especially for its senior managers - will be lower than previous years as the global financial crisis continues to unfold. -- ST PHOTO: LIM WUI LIANG
STAFF of DBS Group will take home a lower total pay package this year, due to variable bonuses being slashed.
Yesterday, South-east Asia's largest lender told The Straits Times in an e-mail that this year, variable bonuses - especially for its senior managers - will be lower than previous years as the global financial crisis continues to unfold.
'As of now, there have been no change in monthly salaries. However, pay cuts in the form of variable bonus reductions will be more skewed to senior management,' said DBS in an e-mailed statement.
'Senior managers will get an even larger 'pay cut' as their variable bonus makes up a much larger proportion of total compensation versus junior staff,' explained a DBS spokesman.
Typically, bank employees are remunerated based on a 'total compensation' model which comprise a fixed monthly salary and a variable year-end bonus.
Given the ongoing global economic turmoil, DBS said variable bonuses in 2008 will be 'significantly lower than that paid out in previous years'.
The latest news follows layoffs of 900 employees, mainly in its Singapore and Hong Kong units, as part of a cost reduction exercise.
Although DBS did not specify the impact on each business unit or market, it said that the recent layoffs affected about 3.5 per cent of junior staff and 16 per cent of senior staff.
'After considering the number of staff affected, we felt it was crucial that the remaining 96.5 per cent of our junior staff's fixed monthly wages be kept intact,' said the DBS spokesman.
According to its annual report, DBS paid out $1.38 billion in employees' compensation in 2007, 11 per cent higher than 2006. It posted a 38 per cent drop in third-quarter profits as losses from bad debts mounted over the year.
Last week, Temasek Holdings said senior managers had volunteered to take pay cuts of between 15 and 25 per cent. The civil service has also announced wage cuts.
This is strange indeed. They should be cutting cost by reducing the pay package for their staff first before retrenching their staff. Instead, they chose to do the latter first. A knee-jerk reaction to the government's criticism towards their retrenchment ?
Tuesday, November 25
Public sector pay to fall
Posted by
Kay
at
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
No comments
I have also attached the salary benchmark for which the pay of the top civil servants are based on and the pay scale of senior civil servants and ministers. Looking at the salary benchmark, it seems that it is always a bad idea to be an engineer as a professional. Even with the buoyant economy last year, their pay still fails to cross the $1 million hurdle.
This is where the perks of being a civil servant comes in. Despite of the pessimistic undertone of the article, there is still one important distinction between civil servants and people who worked in the private sector. That distinction is that the chances of civil servants being retrenched is very low. I have been hearing about people getting retrenched in the private sector from my contacts and I doubt this will happen in the civil service. Furthermore, they are still getting some amount of bonus. Adding the 13th month supplement, 1/2 month AVC and a half month bonus received back in July with a dollar quantum of between 100 to 300 dollars, their total bonus is around 2 months. It's not that bad after all given the state of the economy now.
Nov 25, 2008
Public sector pay to fall
By Li Xueying, Political Correspondent
CABINET ministers and top civil servants will see their pay packages shrink by up to 19 per cent next year.
All civil servants will also be getting about one month less in various bonuses at the end of this year, as compared with last year.
A statement from the Public Service Division (PSD), which oversees civil service matters, cited the economic slowdown as the reason for the moves.
Civil servants will still receive their 13th month supplement next month. But unlike last year, there will not be a Growth Bonus, which was half a month's pay last year.
The Annual Variable Component, or AVC, to be paid next month, will be half a month's pay, down from one month a year ago.
Civil servants had earlier received half a month's bonus in July, plus a dollar quantum of between $100 and $300 to help them cope with inflation.
As for the pay of top office-holders, the PSD said yesterday that the 2009 annual salaries of both President S R Nathan and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will fall by 19 per cent compared with this year, to $3.14 million and $3.04 million respectively.
Senior permanent secretaries and entry-grade ministers at the MR4 grade will get $1.57 million, 18 per cent less than this year.
Administrative Service officers at the superscale entry grade of SR9 - these are usually top-performing officers in their early or mid-30s - will see their annual pay drop 12 per cent to $353,000.
Members of Parliament, whose allowances are pegged to public sector pay, will get $190,000, down 16 per cent.
The pay of Cabinet ministers and top civil servants has been pegged to the taxed income of top earners in six professions in the private sector since 1994.
Last year, an additional mechanism was introduced to link a 'significant' portion of pay - close to 25 per cent this year - to the performance of the economy, to allow more rapid adjustments to changing market conditions.
The 2009 ministerial pay packets announced yesterday will represent 56 per cent of the private sector benchmark derived from the 2008 Year of Assessment.
Since the pay formula was introduced, top civil servants and ministers have seen their pay go down several times along with the country's economic fortunes - in 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003.
Mr Bob Tan, vice-president of the Singapore National Employers Federation, said the public sector's pay reduction sends a 'very positive signal' to the private sector, 'reminding them that when times are bad, the senior people should be prepared to take a total wage cut'.
Mr N. Rajendran, a housing agent, said: 'It's only fair that those who are better off should take the brunt.'
Mr G. Muthukumarasamy, general secretary of the Amalgamated Union of Public Daily Rated Workers (AUPDRW), was pleased with the additional half a month's bonus he will get in December.
'The amount will provide additional relief for AUPDRW's union members, who are mostly daily rated workers, to help them and their families cope with their daily household expenses. We hope the Government will look into lowering the cost of living too,' he said.
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC MP Josephine Teo, who will see her MP allowance shrink, said: 'It is only right that our allowances reflect the changed economic conditions. However, I will keep up my various contribution commitments - to my parents and community.'
xueying@sph.com.sg
I have also attached the salary benchmark for which the pay of the top civil servants are based on and the pay scale of senior civil servants and ministers. Looking at the salary benchmark, it seems that it is always a bad idea to be an engineer as a professional. Even with the buoyant economy last year, their pay still fails to cross the $1 million hurdle.
This is where the perks of being a civil servant comes in. Despite of the pessimistic undertone of the article, there is still one important distinction between civil servants and people who worked in the private sector. That distinction is that the chances of civil servants being retrenched is very low. I have been hearing about people getting retrenched in the private sector from my contacts and I doubt this will happen in the civil service. Furthermore, they are still getting some amount of bonus. Adding the 13th month supplement, 1/2 month AVC and a half month bonus received back in July with a dollar quantum of between 100 to 300 dollars, their total bonus is around 2 months. It's not that bad after all given the state of the economy now.
Monday, November 24
Recession. Which type ?
Posted by
Kay
at
Monday, November 24, 2008
No comments
Articles in the press often talked about how will a recession be like. Often, they will tend to use shapes such as a V-shaped, U-shaped and a L-shaped recession to describe it. But what do these shapes actually mean ?
A V-shaped recession is one which goes down in a steep way rapidly and recovers at an equally fast pace. The start of this type of recession is mainly due to the influx of some disastrous news and this contributes to the start of the plunge. Once fear and panic subsides, the recovery will take place quickly due to the sound fundamentals of the economy. This will happen after the market realize that the effects of the news that contributed to the plunge is over. Some of the examples of a V-shaped recession includes the 9/11 terrorist attacks in US and the SARS attack in Asia which affected Singapore.
A U-shaped recession is one that goes down at a slower rate and recovers at a slow pace too. This type of recession can last for several years. The start of this recession is also due to the influx of disastrous news. However, the news associated with this kind of recession tend to have some basis behind them. Most of the reasons are due to a poor forecasted economic outlook such as a high rate of inflation, falling exports, increasing unemployment rate and etc. Gradually, the economy will recover due to actions being taken by the government but it will be at a slower pace since this recession is caused by problems in the economy. One example of a U-shaped recession occurs in the 70s in the US.
A L-shaped recession is one that goes down and stays at that level for a long time. The cause of this recession is similar to that of the U-shaped recession i.e. poor economy outlook. However, this recession may take a very long time to recover and the reason behind this can be due to wrong or slow actions taken by the government to correct the recession. One such example would be the recession in Japan which started in the 90s. Even at this point of time, Japan has never really recovered fully from this recession.
A V-shaped recession is one which goes down in a steep way rapidly and recovers at an equally fast pace. The start of this type of recession is mainly due to the influx of some disastrous news and this contributes to the start of the plunge. Once fear and panic subsides, the recovery will take place quickly due to the sound fundamentals of the economy. This will happen after the market realize that the effects of the news that contributed to the plunge is over. Some of the examples of a V-shaped recession includes the 9/11 terrorist attacks in US and the SARS attack in Asia which affected Singapore.
A U-shaped recession is one that goes down at a slower rate and recovers at a slow pace too. This type of recession can last for several years. The start of this recession is also due to the influx of disastrous news. However, the news associated with this kind of recession tend to have some basis behind them. Most of the reasons are due to a poor forecasted economic outlook such as a high rate of inflation, falling exports, increasing unemployment rate and etc. Gradually, the economy will recover due to actions being taken by the government but it will be at a slower pace since this recession is caused by problems in the economy. One example of a U-shaped recession occurs in the 70s in the US.
A L-shaped recession is one that goes down and stays at that level for a long time. The cause of this recession is similar to that of the U-shaped recession i.e. poor economy outlook. However, this recession may take a very long time to recover and the reason behind this can be due to wrong or slow actions taken by the government to correct the recession. One such example would be the recession in Japan which started in the 90s. Even at this point of time, Japan has never really recovered fully from this recession.
Labels:
Informational
Broker to pay $350,000 in stock market losses after client fled
Posted by
Kay
at
Monday, November 24, 2008
3 comments
I thought this was an interesting story. It is an real example that the brokers have to pay the losses if their clients fled. This is the reason why brokers have to be careful about increasing the trading limit of their clients. If they increase it too much, they take on a higher risk of their clients fleeing away after losses. If they keep the trading limit low, they may not earn so much in their commission.
FOOLED by new client's posh appearance
Broker to pay $350,000 in stock market loss after client, who drove Jaguar and lived in condo, vanishes
By Tay Shi'an
November 23, 2008 / Source : The Electric New Paper
THEY are sometimes referred to as brokers. For one remisier, however, the word has taken an awfully literal meaning.
Reason: She may soon go broke having to make up for a rogue client's losses.
The client, a Malaysian woman in her 60s, had seemed financially reliable. She lived in private property. Her family gets around in a Jaguar. And she had put a US$50,000 ($76,600) deposit to begin trading.
The remisier, who has been in the industry for more than five years, said: 'I thought this client was able to trade and able to pay.'
But then the client lost US$227,000 after taking huge risks on the US stock market, betting on shares such as AIG and Fannie Mae.And she vanished.
Now, the remisier, who is in her 30s, will have to settle the debt with her brokerage firm if the client cannot be found.
That's because, under the remisier's agreement with her firm, if any of her clients do not honour their debts, it is the remisier who will have to pay the firm.
This is the standard practice in the industry, firms and remisiers told The New Paper when asked.
Ms Lim (not her real name) has since filed a police report and magistrate's complaint against the client.
She asked not to be named, as her colleagues do not know about her loss.
She said the walk-in client opened the trading account in April. In her application, the client stated that she had an annual income of between $100,000 and $200,000, and a net worth of $250,000 to $500,000, excluding properties and retirement assets.
She also stated that she was the director of a Malaysian company, and lived in private property in Singapore.
As she wanted to play the US stock market, she was asked to place a US$50,000 cash deposit with the brokerage firm. This amount varies on the discretion of the remisier.
Ms Lim said she did not do a check to verify the personal information provided by the client, and did not know if the firm did its checks.
The remisier said the Internet trading account was used by the client and the client's son, who appeared to be in his 40s.
For five months, the account was very active and volatile because of the wild swings in the US stock market.
The client and her son would frequently do contra-trading, meaning they would buy shares without coming up with any capital, hoping to sell them for a higher price within the three-day settlement period.
Suspended account
They would then pocket any profits, or fork out the difference in losses to the brokerage firm.
Ms Lim said she suspended the account about five times, when the losses reached the deposit sum of US$50,000. But she reinstated them each time, after mother and son made good the losses.
Ms Lim said she met the son and his girlfriend once, when they drove up in a Jaguar to hand a cheque to her. She claimed the son rebuked her for suspending the account and was 'abusive'.
By September, the account had a profit of US$180,000.
But things went horribly wrong within the same month when the client and her son traded heavily on shares such as AIG, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual.
The share prices plummeted. Within a week, the account chalked up US$227,000 in contra losses.
Ms Lim said: 'They did Internet trading, so it was very hard to control. By the time I woke up, (the trades) were done.'
Ms Lim immediately suspended the account and contacted mother and son to settle the debt.
But in an SMS reply dated 29 Sep, the son wrote, 'want me honour my lost and yet u suspend my line..its nt profesional..talk to yr boss' (sic).
After several days of unreturned phone calls, Ms Lim made house visits alone on two occasions to the family's condo home in the west. Both times, she saw only two children in the house.
She got another SMS message from the son on 1 Oct, telling her not to 'disturb' his mother, but the next day, the son sent her a message promising to settle the debt a week after.
When she did not hear from him by then, Ms Lim made another house visit, this time with a debt collector - only to find the condo unit empty.
That was when she found out they were tenants who had lived there for only a few months.
Ms Lim lodged a police report on 12 Oct.
Her last contact with the family was an SMS message from the client on 13 Oct: 'U dun keep chasing. Give some time. Wil sort out.' The telephone numbers were disconnected soon after.
Ms Lim reported the client's account as delinquent to the Singapore Exchange on 21 Oct.
That was when she found out that another major brokerage firm had also blacklisted the same client on 10 Oct for failure to pay. It is understood that the sum owed to the other firm is about $5,000.
Ms Lim said that even if she hired a debt collector now, she would not be able to tell them where to look for the client.
She consulted a private investigator, but was reluctant to pay several thousand dollars to track down mother and son.
'It'll be throwing good money after bad money,' she said.
When speaking to The New Paper, Ms Lim appeared stoic about her loss, which she wryly compared to the cost of a Housing Board flat.
Ms Lim said she has told her family about the loss: 'My parents are very worried, but still very supportive.
'I just wish I let go of the account and passed it to someone else. Now, I've got to bear the debt.'
Ms Lim is still trying ways and means to track down the missing client, but she is also preparing for the worst.
She declined to reveal how she would repay the debt to her brokerage firm. 'I'll just have to come up with the money somehow,' she said.
I thought this was an interesting story. It is an real example that the brokers have to pay the losses if their clients fled. This is the reason why brokers have to be careful about increasing the trading limit of their clients. If they increase it too much, they take on a higher risk of their clients fleeing away after losses. If they keep the trading limit low, they may not earn so much in their commission.
Saturday, November 22
STI Technical Analysis 22nd Nov
Posted by
Kay
at
Saturday, November 22, 2008
No comments
Another day of buying up on Friday for the Straits Times Index when it opened on a huge gap down due to the dismal closing of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. STI touched a low of 1570.23 before closing at close to its high at 1662.1. This is the third day of such buying up that has occurred since STI touched the interim bottom on 28th of October. I have highlighted those three days with purple rectangular boxes. You can also take a look at my previous posting on such buying up for the STI here.
Another day of buying up on Friday for the Straits Times Index when it opened on a huge gap down due to the dismal closing of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. STI touched a low of 1570.23 before closing at close to its high at 1662.1. This is the third day of such buying up that has occurred since STI touched the interim bottom on 28th of October. I have highlighted those three days with purple rectangular boxes. You can also take a look at my previous posting on such buying up for the STI here.
Labels:
STI,
Technical Analysis
Friday, November 21
S'pore cuts GDP forecast
Posted by
Kay
at
Friday, November 21, 2008
No comments
This news confirmed what had been expected all along. In fact, it has been priced into the market already. The drop was mainly attributed to the manufacturing sector with regards to the biomedical centre. Singapore is highly dependent on exports and with the US economy in doldrums, it is expected that manufacturing activities will be taking a hit.
I noticed that it is quite strange that majority of those who were retrenched in the last quarter were from manufacturing and not from financial services. After all, most of the news about retrenchment in the press came from banks and other financial firms.
Nov 21, 2008
S'pore cuts GDP forecast
Economy could shrink in 2009.
SINGAPORE on Friday further downgraded its growth forecast for this year and said the economy could contract in 2009, after weaker than expected third-quarter GDP figures.
The economy shrank at a worse-than-expected rate of 6.8 per cent on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter, final government data showed on Friday, confirming the export-dependent country's first recession since 2002.
The government forecast full year 2008 growth at around 2.5 per cent, from a previous estimate of 3 per cent.
Economists had expected the data to confirm a previous government flash estimate of a 6.3 per cent contraction on an annualised seasonally adjusted basis. The median of forecasts by eight economists was for full-year GDP growth of 2.3 per cent.
Singapore was the first country in Asia to fall into a recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, with Japan and Hong Kong having followed.
A Ministry of Trade and Industry statement on Friday said the economy will expand 2.5 per cent in 2008, lower than an October forecast for 3 per cent growth and less than a third of 2007's pace. The economy, already in recession, may shrink by as much as 1 per cent next year, the first time since 2001.
Singapore will announce its next budget in January, a month earlier than planned, as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned the economy may experience several years of slow growth.
'There is a degree of urgency needed to implement expansionary policies to address the weakening economy,' Mr Joseph Tan, the chief economist for Asia at Credit Suisse Private Banking in Singapore told Bloomberg news.
'The government knows it can't do much about external demand so the focus will be to pump-prime the economy through domestic sources.'
Gross domestic product contracted an annualised 6.8 per cent in the third quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking a revised 5.3 per cent between April and June, the trade ministry said in a statement today. That was more than the median forecast of a 6.3 per cent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists, which was the same as the government's estimate in October.
Overseas shipments in the first 10 months of 2008 were about 6 per cent lower compared to the same period last year, already worse than the government's forecast for a full-year decline of as much as 4 per cent.
The manufacturing industry, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, contracted a revised 11.4 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 5.2 per cent drop in the previous three months, Friday's data showed.
The production slump has led to widening losses at companies including Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd, the world's third-largest made-to-order chipmaker, and prompted some to cut jobs. Three-quarters of the 2,000 workers retrenched in Singapore last quarter were from the manufacturing industry.
Singapore's services industry also slowed as the global credit crunch hurt financial companies, tourist arrivals dropped and consumers cut back on spending. Services climbed 5.3 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing from a revised 7.1 per cent pace in the previous period.
The construction industry grew 12.8 per cent, easing from a rate of 19.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The building industry is facing labour and equipment-shortage constraints, and developers are delaying the introduction of new properties as prices fall. -- REUTERS, AFP
This news confirmed what had been expected all along. In fact, it has been priced into the market already. The drop was mainly attributed to the manufacturing sector with regards to the biomedical centre. Singapore is highly dependent on exports and with the US economy in doldrums, it is expected that manufacturing activities will be taking a hit.
I noticed that it is quite strange that majority of those who were retrenched in the last quarter were from manufacturing and not from financial services. After all, most of the news about retrenchment in the press came from banks and other financial firms.
Labels:
Economy
S'pore monetary policy stays
Posted by
Kay
at
Friday, November 21, 2008
No comments
Nov 21, 2008
S'pore monetary policy stays
S$ slips after data confirms recession.
SINGAPORE'S central bank will take action to contain excess volatility in the Singapore dollar , the Monetary Authority of Singapore's Executive Director Edward Robinson said on Friday.
Mr Robinson told journalists that the currency's nominal effective exchange rate, or NEER, had remained within the central bank's secret policy band.
The Singapore dollar slipped slightly on Friday, but stayed firmer than the previous day's 15-month trough, after data showed the economy was weaker than initially estimated in the third quarter.
The currency fell to 1.5331 per US dollar, traders said, compared with Thursday's close of 1.5304 and levels of 1.5324 just before the data. It had fallen to 1.5335 in the previous session.
'The numbers were a shade worse than expected,' said Mr Emmanuel Ng, a strategist at OCBC Bank, adding that inflation forecasts had also been lowered.
'On the back of this, markets may continue to see upside for the USD-SGD in line with the regionals, although continued official presence on top may contain discreet jumps in the spot.'
Analysts believe Singapore's central bank will gradually ease policy further over the next few months, through a weaker currency, to support consumers in the heavily trade-weighted economy.
Monetary policy in Singapore is run by guiding the trade-weighted currency within a secret policy band. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eased policy in October by shifting to a zero appreciation path for the trade-weighted currency.
Singapore's economy shrank at an annualised, seasonally adjusted rate of 6.8 per cent in the third quarter, final government data showed on Friday, confirming the export-dependent country's first recession since 2002. -- THOMSON REUTERS
Labels:
Fiscal Policies
DJIA Technical Analysis 21st Nov
Posted by
Kay
at
Friday, November 21, 2008
No comments
DJIA broke out of the support region of around 8219 after a drop of -444.99 points or -5.56 % in terms of percentage and closed at 7552.29.
I took a look at the technical chart using Yahoo finance as Chartnexus only displayed two years of data. The region of around 7600 has been an interesting area since important support areas in the past had been found there. This corresponded to the closing level of 7640.25 on the 31st August of 1998 and 7528.4 on the 22nd September of 2002. Currently, DJIA is hovering slightly above this region so it will be good to take note if this support region can hold.
DJIA broke out of the support region of around 8219 after a drop of -444.99 points or -5.56 % in terms of percentage and closed at 7552.29.
I took a look at the technical chart using Yahoo finance as Chartnexus only displayed two years of data. The region of around 7600 has been an interesting area since important support areas in the past had been found there. This corresponded to the closing level of 7640.25 on the 31st August of 1998 and 7528.4 on the 22nd September of 2002. Currently, DJIA is hovering slightly above this region so it will be good to take note if this support region can hold.
Labels:
DJIA,
Technical Analysis
Thursday, November 20
NOL to cut 1,000 jobs
Posted by
Kay
at
Thursday, November 20, 2008
No comments
Another local company that is joining DBS in trimming it's workforce. 50 jobs will be trimmed locally for NOL. I think more local companies will be trimming their workforce in the near future. In the previous Asian Financial Crisis, 30000 jobs were lost.
Nov 19, 2008
NOL to cut 1,000 jobs
By Yang Huiwen
NOL, which is 66 per cent held by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings , is the latest global firm to announce job cuts in light of a rapidly slowing world economy. -- PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
NEPTUNE Orient Lines will cut more than 1,000 jobs to reduce costs as the global recession reduces demand for moving sea cargo.
Most of the job cuts will be in North America, where its costs are the highest, the company said in a statement to the SGX on Wednesday morning before the market opened.
This is 'to place the company on a more sustainable footing through an expected severe and prolonged downturn in global container shipping', said the statement.
About 50 positions will be lost at its Singapore headquarters. The job cuts represent about 9 per cent of its 11,000-strong workforce.
Neptune Orient Lines is the parent company of container shipping line APL, based in Oakland, California.
The cuts come after NOL last month said it would reduce capacity between Asia and Europe by close to 25 per cent, and 20 per cent on the trans-Pacific route.
Those cuts will significantly reduce operating costs but the market has worsened considerably over the past month, the company said in a statement, forecasting a 'grim' outlook for profitability in 2009.
'The negative conditions we are seeing in the marketplace are unprecedented in our industry's history. This necessitates these very difficult decisions', said NOL's group president and chief executive officer Ron Widdows.
'This reflects our considered view that what we are seeing goes beyond a normal cyclical downturn'.
Mr Widdows said NOL's plan would lead to a restructuring charge of about US$33 million (S$50.44 million) in fourth quarter results, but this would 'deliver positive financial outcomes in future years'.
However, brokers say the firm's move to cut operating and overhead costs may not be enough to offset the slump in the shipping industry.
'While we are positive on the measures announced by NOL, the cost cutting initiatives may not be able to offset the severe top-line pressure', said CIMB-GK analyst Raymond Yap.
NOL last month reported that third-quarter net profit plunged 82 per cent.
Net profit for the three months to September was US$35 million, down from US$191 million in the same period in 2007 because of falling demand.
Container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities across Asia are reporting slowdowns in business while the global economy slows. Container shipping was hit first earlier this year as demand for Asian-made goods in the US and Europe dropped off.
In a chain reaction, the countless Asian factories churning out electronics and consumer items for the US and European markets began lowering output, and the need for raw materials declined.
Neptune Orient Lines is 66 per cent owned by Singapore's state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings.
Another local company that is joining DBS in trimming it's workforce. 50 jobs will be trimmed locally for NOL. I think more local companies will be trimming their workforce in the near future. In the previous Asian Financial Crisis, 30000 jobs were lost.
Wednesday, November 19
COE Cat A drop to $2
Posted by
Kay
at
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
No comments
I got this from the LTA website. The link is here. This is quite surprising indeed. I'm sure those who bought their car before this will be looking at some cash rebates. Time for a new car ? :)
I got this from the LTA website. The link is here. This is quite surprising indeed. I'm sure those who bought their car before this will be looking at some cash rebates. Time for a new car ? :)
Budget deficit to triple
Posted by
Kay
at
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
No comments
Nov 18, 2008
Budget deficit to triple
By Goh Chin Lian, Political Correspondent
THIS year's budget deficit is likely to balloon to over $2.4 billion, more than three times larger than initially estimated by the Government.
Higher infrastructure cost, additional spending on procreation measures and lower revenues collected were among the reasons Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam cited.
But in a written reply on Tuesday to a Nominated MP's question in Parliament, the minister indicated the larger than expected deficit was not a cause for worry.
'We are not seeking to reduce this deficit, either by trimming Government expenditures or raising additional revenues.'
'The larger deficit is an appropriate fiscal stance in the context of an economy that has entered a slowdown.'
'We have in fact raised expenditures over the course of the year, so as to allow for a more expansionary budget in the current economic environment.'
He added that the Government will be able to fund the larger deficit from the $6.4 billion Budget surplus accumulated in the last financial year ending March 31, this year, 'when we had unexpectedly higher revenues'.
Nominated MP Gautam Banerjee had asked the minister whether in the light of the global financial crisis, assumptions, estimates and forecasts in the Budget presented to Parliament in February this year need to be revised.
Mr Tharman said at that time, the Government's forecast of GDP growth for 2008 was 4 to 6 per cent, and inflation between 4 to 5 per cent, all in line with most market forecasts then.
These forecasts were also in line with most market forecasts then, he said.
'However, we also highlighted in the Budget the significant downside risks to growth in 2008 due to the turmoil that was ongoing in global financial markets. We also underlined the risks of higher inflation arising from the run-up in oil and food prices,' he pointed out.
'As the year progressed, these risks have in fact materialised. Growth is now likely to fall significantly below the forecast range at the start of the year. Inflation also rose to above 6 per cent in the middle of the year, although it is now falling together with the decline in commodity prices.'
'Overall, inflation should average above 6 per cent in 2008, or between 5 to 6 per cent if we exclude rental values that are imputed to owner-occupied homes, which do not reflect cash expenditures.'
The minister said the government would be revising its budget estimates for FY08, taking into account the latest available information and the most updated forecasts for the remaining five months of the fiscal year ending in March.
Labels:
Fiscal Policies
Monday, November 17
S'pore dollar at 14-mth low
Posted by
Kay
at
Monday, November 17, 2008
No comments
Nov 17, 2008
S'pore dollar at 14-mth low
TAIPEI - THE Singapore dollar fell to a 14-month low against the US dollar on Monday as data showing a sharp fall in the island's exports underscored the toll the global economic downturn is exerting on emerging Asia.
The Indonesian rupiah fell 2 per cent and other Asian currencies also fell after a meeting of leaders of the Group of 20 nations failed to yield any substantial measures and data showed the euro zone and Japan toppled into recessions.
The Singapore dollar fell to as low as 1.5253 to the US dollar, its weakest level since September 2007, with the market expecting the Monetary Authority of Singapore to adopt a looser monetary policy to keep the manufacturing sector competitive.
One of the region's most trade-dependent economies, Singapore released data showing a sharper-than-expected decline in October exports.
'Following the more aggressive policy moves elsewhere and the weaker-than-expected economic outturns globally since the October meeting, it now seems more unobjectionable for the MAS to ease their monetary policy (via weaker currency),' UBS said in a report.
Singapore runs monetary policy by guiding the trade-weighted exchange rate. In October, it already eased policy by switching to a zero appreciation path for the trade-weighted currency band.
The monetary authority schedules policy reviews twice a year - April and October - but traders expect it to loosen policy before its next scheduled meeting.
Central banks from India to Taiwan have slashed their main policy interest rates over the past month as the global financial crisis hit exports and broader growth. Economic woes and capital outflows have been pushing currencies from emerging Asia lower over the past few months.
On Monday, the Indonesia rupiah led the fall in the region's currencies by weakening by about 2 per cent to trade at 11,750 to the US dollar, while the South Korean won lost 0.6 per cent to 1,407.4.
Group of 20 leaders meeting over the weekend also failed to convince markets that key economies were doing enough to ward off a global recession.
'There were no measures, so there was nothing for the markets to grip on to,' said Vishnu Varathan, an economist from Forecast, adding that the market took its cues from the fall in US stocks. -- AP
Labels:
Fiscal Policies
Sunday, November 16
DJIA Technical Analysis 16th Nov
Posted by
Kay
at
Sunday, November 16, 2008
No comments
Technically, an interim bottom may have been reached for the DJIA. This is due to the testing of the low coupled with a strong closing on the 13th of November. On that day, it tested a low of 7965.42. Previously, DJIA had tested the level of 7882.51 successfully on the 10th of October. I have highlighted both days with purple rectangles. Do note that the volume for both days were heavy and that adds to the significance of the testing of the lows. With the successful testing of the region of around 7900, DJIA should be poised for a retracement back to the upside soon
Technically, an interim bottom may have been reached for the DJIA. This is due to the testing of the low coupled with a strong closing on the 13th of November. On that day, it tested a low of 7965.42. Previously, DJIA had tested the level of 7882.51 successfully on the 10th of October. I have highlighted both days with purple rectangles. Do note that the volume for both days were heavy and that adds to the significance of the testing of the lows. With the successful testing of the region of around 7900, DJIA should be poised for a retracement back to the upside soon
Labels:
DJIA,
Technical Analysis
Saturday, November 15
DBS overhauls sales tactics
Posted by
Kay
at
Saturday, November 15, 2008
No comments
This article seems to be very heartening indeed since investors will be asked tough questions before investing. However, this system is still flawed in my opinion.
Firstly, one must understand that the objectives of banks, just like any companies is to make profits. It seems to me that they can earn profits through several channels. This can include the initial sales charge when one buys the product and subsequently, a cut of any profits in the event that the product turns out to be profitable. In the event that the product is in the red, the investor will likely have to bear all of the losses. So in both events, the banks will still stand to make a profit. So in order to increase their profits, they will try to sell more products to the investors. Thus this overhaul of sales tactics only mean that the bank will try to sell the 'right' product to the investor if such a product exists but it does not change the fact that banks are for profits. Let us not forget too that such products being sold by the bank is likely to have a poor yield due to sales charge and the cut of the profits that the banks take if the product is profitable.
Secondly, investors must be able to understand what type of products that they are buying. Given that the objective of banks is to churn out profits, it is unlikely that they will put the interest of the investors as their priority. Thus even if the bank recommends the 'right' product, investors must be able to discern about the risks of the product and not leave everything else to the bank.
In short, it is not advisable to entrust your investments to the bank without knowing what is going on since the objective of the bank is to churn out profits. Caveat emptor !
Nov 12, 2008
DBS overhauls sales tactics
Customers will be asked tough questions before investing, says chairman
By Ignatius Low, Money Editor
DBS Bank plans to ask more detailed questions about a customer's background and how he got the money he is investing.
SINGAPORE'S largest bank is making big changes to the way it sells investments to customers, as it continues to battle criticism over losses suffered by those who put money into its High Notes 5 product.
DBS Bank plans to ask more detailed questions about a customer's background and how he got the money he is investing. And it will turn away those who are not suitable for a product, even if they insist on buying it.
The bank has drawn flak for arranging and selling structured products that have been rendered worthless by the collapse of American investment bank Lehman Brothers.
Some customers claim that the risks were not explained to them.
The bank has pledged to look into every complaint filed and resolve them all by the end of the year.
'It's a very encouraging move by a financial institution, certainly for retail investors like retirees,' said Mr David Gerald, chief executive officer of the Securities Investors Association of Singapore (Sias).
Sias has spoken out against the mis-selling of investment products and issued a guide for investors last week.
'It puts some of the responsibility back with investors, but then there is also a cooling-off period too, should they make a wrong decision and change their mind,' added Mr Gerald.
ignatius@sph.com.sg
This article seems to be very heartening indeed since investors will be asked tough questions before investing. However, this system is still flawed in my opinion.
Firstly, one must understand that the objectives of banks, just like any companies is to make profits. It seems to me that they can earn profits through several channels. This can include the initial sales charge when one buys the product and subsequently, a cut of any profits in the event that the product turns out to be profitable. In the event that the product is in the red, the investor will likely have to bear all of the losses. So in both events, the banks will still stand to make a profit. So in order to increase their profits, they will try to sell more products to the investors. Thus this overhaul of sales tactics only mean that the bank will try to sell the 'right' product to the investor if such a product exists but it does not change the fact that banks are for profits. Let us not forget too that such products being sold by the bank is likely to have a poor yield due to sales charge and the cut of the profits that the banks take if the product is profitable.
Secondly, investors must be able to understand what type of products that they are buying. Given that the objective of banks is to churn out profits, it is unlikely that they will put the interest of the investors as their priority. Thus even if the bank recommends the 'right' product, investors must be able to discern about the risks of the product and not leave everything else to the bank.
In short, it is not advisable to entrust your investments to the bank without knowing what is going on since the objective of the bank is to churn out profits. Caveat emptor !
Sibor falls to 4-year low
Posted by
Kay
at
Saturday, November 15, 2008
No comments
Sibor is likely to remain low in the near future. Another fiscal policy that one should be aware of is the weakening of SGD against USD. This is usually done to boost exports out of Singapore in order to stimulate the economy.
Nov 12, 2008
Sibor falls to 4-year LOW
Bad news for savers, good news for mortgage owners
By Gabriel Chen
This benchmark rate, known as the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), has been highly volatile of late. -- PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
THE all-important interest rate at which banks lend funds to one another has nosedived to 0.89 per cent - its lowest level since mid-2004.
This is likely to be good news for many home owners, who are set to enjoy lower mortgage rates soon. Rates on other consumer loans may also fall.
But the outlook is not so good for investors holding fixed deposits - as their interest rates are likely to fall as well. And businesses big and small will not necessarily get a flow-on benefit of lower borrowing costs. This benchmark rate, known as the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate Sibor), has been highly volatile of late.
In September, it spiked to 2 per cent as the global credit crunch hit home here in a big way as banks were afraid to lend to one another for fear of not getting repaid.
Today, the three-month Sibor, to which many home loans are pegged, is at its lowest point since July 2004.
Economists say the aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks around the world as well as massive doses of liquidity injections to thaw frozen credit markets are working.
'Fears of the credit crunch and counterparty failure risk have also in part subsided slightly recently, partly due to the extension of deposit guarantees and government bailouts for troubled financial institutions in countries like the United States,' said OCBC economist Selena Ling.
All these explain why the three-month Sibor - which closely tracks the benchmark US federal funds target rate - is easing.
And it will continue to stay low in the near term, economists say.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Alvin Liew expects it to decline to 0.8 per cent early next year. 'We expect the three-month Sibor to decline in early 2009 to well below 1 per cent and remain around that depressed level for most of next year.'
Fixed deposit rates, even those on a promotional basis, could trend lower if Sibor remains low. Foreign banks appear to have less need to pull in deposits by dishing out attractive promotional fixed deposit rates, as they had done in recent months when credit was very tight, one banker said.
This is because the recent deposit guarantee announced by the Monetary Authority of Singapore has helped to dispel the perception that foreign banks are not as safe as local banks.
'The lower cost of funds is more icing on the cake for foreign banks, as they can tap the interbank market for funding,' he said.
For home owners, any loan pegged to Sibor will mean a lower rate.
'If customers feel that rates will go lower, then the three-month Sibor is a good way to capitalise, given that it automatically adjusts as the rates go lower,' said Mr Dennis Khoo, Stanchart's general manager of lending.
While Sibor is unlikely to bounce back as quickly and sharply as it has fallen in the last two months, bankers say those looking for fixed cash flow and protection against interest rate movements should opt for fixed-rate home loan packages.
For the banks themselves, interest rates are but one consideration in determining the prices of housing loans.
In contrast to the booming property markets in 2006 and early last year, banks now have to contend with increased capital costs and 'potentially higher delinquencies' amid the current financial turmoil, said OCBC's head of consumer secured lending, Mr Gregory Chan.
However, businesses may not necessarily benefit from the lower Sibor.
In the past, both small and large businesses could have expected lower borrowing costs from a falling Sibor, but current conditions may negate this, bankers say.
While there are exceptions to the rule for certain customers, banks will price in higher spreads between borrowing and lending costs in the months ahead to reflect greater credit risk in these recessionary conditions.
'In deciding pricing for corporate lending, banks would also incorporate their liquidity premium in the pricing,' said Fortis Bank head of corporate banking for Asia-Pacific Patrick Tan.
Given today's tight liquidity, banks generally are pricing their own cost of borrowing into what they lend out to their customers, he said.
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng warned that a smooth ride out of the crisis is far from assured.
'The economic weakness that we now see could still feed back into the financial sector, which may then spark another round of risk aversion and possible future spikes in interest rates.'
gabrielc@sph.com.sg
Sibor is likely to remain low in the near future. Another fiscal policy that one should be aware of is the weakening of SGD against USD. This is usually done to boost exports out of Singapore in order to stimulate the economy.
Labels:
Fiscal Policies,
Sibor
Sunday, November 9
STI Technical Analysis 9th Nov
Posted by
Kay
at
Sunday, November 09, 2008
No comments
There has been two instances where STI opened on a huge gap down and covered back the gap at the end of the day with heavy volume and that to me, is significant technically. I have highlighted those two days and their corresponding volume with purple rectangular boxes. Why are they significant ? This is because this shows that there are buyers in the market who are willing to buy in at lower prices. Usually, the huge gap down is caused by a dismal closing for the DJIA.
On the 28th of Oct, STI opened at 1496.12 and touched a low of 1473.77 before closing at 1666.49. Percentage-wise, STI managed to chalk up a huge gain of 11.6%. On the 7th of Nov, STI opened at it's low of 1717.66 and closed at 1863.49 and we are talking about a percentage gain of around 7.8%. The movement of these two days suggest that the downside risk is getting limited.
There has been two instances where STI opened on a huge gap down and covered back the gap at the end of the day with heavy volume and that to me, is significant technically. I have highlighted those two days and their corresponding volume with purple rectangular boxes. Why are they significant ? This is because this shows that there are buyers in the market who are willing to buy in at lower prices. Usually, the huge gap down is caused by a dismal closing for the DJIA.
On the 28th of Oct, STI opened at 1496.12 and touched a low of 1473.77 before closing at 1666.49. Percentage-wise, STI managed to chalk up a huge gain of 11.6%. On the 7th of Nov, STI opened at it's low of 1717.66 and closed at 1863.49 and we are talking about a percentage gain of around 7.8%. The movement of these two days suggest that the downside risk is getting limited.
Labels:
STI,
Technical Analysis
Saturday, November 8
DBS to cut 900 jobs
Posted by
Kay
at
Saturday, November 08, 2008
No comments
This came as a complete surprise to me. I believe it is the first local company to trim it's workforce. The previous retrenchment news were mainly from MNCs which are from other countries. Furthermore, DBS did not a have lot of exposure to the sub-prime crisis and it is still making profits. Perhaps, this piece of news serves to remind us that this wave of retrenchment is just about to begin.
Feel free to leave comments by clicking on the rectangular cloud with the number at the top right corner of each post
DBS to cut 900 jobs
By Saeed Azhar and Kevin Lim Reuters
Published: November 7, 2008
DBS Group, the biggest Southeast Asia bank, said Friday that it would cut 900 jobs, or 6 percent of its staff, after posting a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly profit as losses from bad debts quadrupled.
DBS and its Asian peers like Bank of China, which largely escaped the credit market meltdown that crippled Western banks, are now being hit by slowing economies, sliding property prices and a sharp fall in capital market activity.
DBS shares, which fell nearly 9 percent in early trade after it said profit had fallen 38 percent, recovered to close up 2.7 percent. DBS shares have almost halved in value this year.
Richard Stanley, who took over as DBS chief executive in May, said 900 jobs, most of them in Singapore and Hong Kong, would be eliminated.
"The job cuts will be across businesses and functions and at all levels," Stanley said at a news conference. "The reasons for these cuts is to allow DBS to be a much leaner and more streamlined organization for many years to come."
The job cuts were the biggest for the Singapore bank, which shed 200 staff members in 2001. Its crosstown rival, United Overseas Bank, said it would cut jobs only as a last resort; Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. said cuts were not on its agenda.
Stanley said DBS would continue to review its costs and organizational structure but was comfortable with its capital position.
July-September net profit dropped to 379 million Singapore dollars, or $254 million, from 610 million Singapore dollars a year ago. Analysts had predicted 475 million dollars, according to five forecasts compiled by Reuters.
DBS took 319 million dollars in impairments on bad debt, including general writedowns of 129 million dollars to cover losses from risky derivatives, and took a 70 million dollar charge for compensating customers for Lehman-linked structured products.
DBS had already written down 90 percent of its asset-backed securities, which suffered more because of a meltdown in the U.S. subprime mortgage market.
The result came after smaller local rivals reported below-forecast earnings, hurt by writedowns on bad debts. United Overseas Bank posted a 5 percent drop, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. posted a 13 percent slide in third-quarter profits.
Credit Suisse warned in a report that loan growth in Singapore could collapse to zero next year. Analysts have warned that the end of cheap credit, a downturn in the property market and a slowdown in exports could further increase banks' bad debt charges.
This came as a complete surprise to me. I believe it is the first local company to trim it's workforce. The previous retrenchment news were mainly from MNCs which are from other countries. Furthermore, DBS did not a have lot of exposure to the sub-prime crisis and it is still making profits. Perhaps, this piece of news serves to remind us that this wave of retrenchment is just about to begin.
Feel free to leave comments by clicking on the rectangular cloud with the number at the top right corner of each post
Tuesday, November 4
Q3 corporate results spreadsheet at Business Times
Posted by
Kay
at
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
No comments
The Business Times, a local financial newspaper has compiled the financial results of the companies which have released their Q3 and 9-months results ended September 2008 into a Excel spreadsheet. It is rather useful since it gives various details such as the net profit and their turnover. It is available for download at the main page at http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/. All you have to do is to click on the corporate results for Q3 and 9-month results ended September 2008 near the centre columm of the page.
Labels:
Stuff
Sunday, November 2
STI Technical Analysis 2nd Nov
Posted by
Kay
at
Sunday, November 02, 2008
1 comment
In my opinion, STI has formed an interim bottom due to two factors. The first factor is that the current downtrend is getting too steep. If we assume that STI sheds an average of 100 points for every trading session, it will reach a value of 0 which is impossible in just around 16 days. This is completely irrational thus this downtrend cannot be sustained for long.
The second factor is that there was a strong closing on the 28th of October. STI opened on a huge gap down at 1496.12 and subsequently went on to gain a whopping 12.9% of 192.77 points from a low of 1473.77 to close at it's high at 1666.49. This strong showing was coupled with a heavy volume.
Whether this interim bottom is the final bottom is up to anyone's guess. However, there is a high probability of it being the final bottom since STI has tanked as much as the previous Asian Financial Crisis. Using the low of 1473.77, STI has fallen 61.9% from a peak of 3875.77 and that is close to the percentage amount that STI suffered during the Asian Financial Crisis.
In my opinion, STI has formed an interim bottom due to two factors. The first factor is that the current downtrend is getting too steep. If we assume that STI sheds an average of 100 points for every trading session, it will reach a value of 0 which is impossible in just around 16 days. This is completely irrational thus this downtrend cannot be sustained for long.
The second factor is that there was a strong closing on the 28th of October. STI opened on a huge gap down at 1496.12 and subsequently went on to gain a whopping 12.9% of 192.77 points from a low of 1473.77 to close at it's high at 1666.49. This strong showing was coupled with a heavy volume.
Whether this interim bottom is the final bottom is up to anyone's guess. However, there is a high probability of it being the final bottom since STI has tanked as much as the previous Asian Financial Crisis. Using the low of 1473.77, STI has fallen 61.9% from a peak of 3875.77 and that is close to the percentage amount that STI suffered during the Asian Financial Crisis.
Labels:
STI,
Technical Analysis
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)